When Will China Use Force to Reunite with Taiwan? Hu Xijin Explains His Position
Recent Visits to China by American Officials: Unpacking Secretary Janet Yellen’s and Secretary Antony Blinken’s Diplomatic Ventures
In April 2024, the United States Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen and Secretary of State Antony Blinken took respective trips to China. The American officials faced both successes and roadblocks. How have Chinese scholars viewed Blinken’s visit? How have ordinary Chinese people reacted? Were their trips successful or empty-handed? Below, find summaries of the visits written by two members of the U.S.-China Perception Monitor. The following summaries include the initial goals of the visit, if those goals were met, and perspectives from the Chinese scholars and people. Olivia Moody’s summary about Secretary Yellen’s trip aims to reflect on the present and future of the U.S.-China economic relationship. Juan Zhang’s summary aims to inform American scholars of Chinese views on Secretary Blinken’s visit.
Janet Yellen’s Second Visit to China & The U.S.-China Economic Relationship
By: Olivia Moody
From April 4th to 9th, Janet Yellen visited China for a second time since becoming the United States Secretary of the Treasury in 2021. Her visit shows American commitment to agreements made between the two countries at the November 2023 Woodside Summit to be more communicative as leaders in the global economy. Secretary Yellen was able to share the current needs and wants of the United States government and discuss China’s responses.
Since the Woodside Summit between President Xi Jinping and President Joe Biden in November 2023, both countries have taken small but significant strides toward establishing more official and unofficial dialogues regarding economic cooperation and development. As United States Secretary of the Treasury, Janet Yellen has spearheaded many of these initiatives with her counterpart, Vice Premier He Lifeng. Last Fall, they founded two new bilateral working groups, the Economic Working Group (EWG) and the Financial Working Group (FWG), which have since met four times. More recently, Secretary Yellen’s second visit to China demonstrates the two countries’ commitment to hosting more dialogues on global economic cooperation despite clear disagreements in the bilateral relationship.
During her five days in China, Secretary Yellen met with Premier Li Qiang, the second highest-ranking Chinese official in the country, Vice Premier Lifeng He, who manages public finance and commerce for the People’s Republic of China, as well as the People’s Bank of China Governor, Pan Gongsheng, and China’s Finance Minister, Lan Fo’an. During these meetings, Secretary Yellen highlighted three main priorities for the United States and sought cooperation and comment on them from her counterparts, as well as scholars, students, and those involved in global businesses. These three priorities centered around fostering balanced growth globally, combatting global money laundering, and ensuring financial market stability at the domestic and international levels.
Secretary Yellen also followed up on American concerns about China’s overproduction leading to “overcapacity” in global markets. Through government subsidies and encouragement to produce, Secretary Yellen claimed, China is flooding the global market with unnaturally cheap goods that are likely to cause dramatic price deflations. Secretary Yellen named specific markets where these behaviors are most dramatic and negative consequences for U.S. companies have already been seen. These industries currently include electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries, and solar panels. Secretary Yellen highlighted how Chinese overproduction of steel has hurt the global market and led to collapse of many steel plants in the world. She stated in her press release that “Actions taken by the PRC today can shift world prices. And when the global market is flooded by artificially cheap Chinese products, the viability of American and other foreign firms is put into question.” Chinese representatives argued against this perspective in a recent press briefing on April 9th by stating, “To politicize overcapacity or any other economic and trade issue and arbitrarily link them to security goes against the law of economics and harms one’s own industries and the stability of the global economy.” They furthered that any imbalance in domestic or global economic systems can and will be resolved naturally as levers of supply and demand take effect. Additionally, they mention the World Trade Organization’s rules regarding global industry and their deferment to said rules in times of dispute over global trade responsibilities.
Despite disagreements over Chinese overcapacity, Secretary Yellen announced bilateral support for more exchanges on balanced growth across domestic and global economies. These exchanges will discuss the practicalities of domestic and international supply and demand areas as well as investments and policies regarding aging populations.
Secretary Yellen also announced a new cooperation initiative between the United States Treasury and the People’s Bank of China regarding illicit finance. This initiative seeks to crack down on industries that rely on money laundering such as human trafficking, drug trafficking and large-scale fraud. She emphasized that this area of global cooperation will identify loopholes in both systems and keep illicit materials like narcotics and their synthesizers out of the United States.
Finally, Secretary Yellen announced a new initiative of technical exchanges between finance experts from the United States and China. These exchanges will act to prevent and react to global financial crises. Due to the large scale of both the Chinese and American economies, a shock in either system could result in large panic or subsequent shock across both systems. To maintain stability in global finance, the two governments are hosting exchanges of experts and running frequent simulations to prepare for the occurrence of such an event. This will include the monitoring of developing countries’ outstanding debt and progress, as their stability is also crucial to global financial safety.
While Secretary Yellen’s visit may have seen success in fostering discussion around these three areas of focus, she also faced unsuccessful dialogues around China’s economic relationship with Russia. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February of 2022, the United States has called for economic sanctions and imposed tariffs on Russia and foreign companies supporting the Russian war effort.
At a press conference in Beijing during her visit, Secretary Yellen emphasized that companies providing “material support” for the war or banks that “facilitate significant transactions that channel military or dual-use goods to Russia’s defense industrial base” could face significant consequences. An April 23 Wall Street Journal article reported that U.S. sanctions are being drafted to disconnect Chinese banks from the international finance system for alleged commercial support of Russia. To follow up on these sanctions and demand further action, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken is on his way to Beijing this week. During his trip, it said that he will discuss issues of both global security, such as the Russian War and cross-Strait issues, as well as continuing to fulfill commitments made to continue cooperation in global economic affairs.
Overall, Secretary Yellen’s visit showed the same roadblocks and rejection found in previous conversations regarding overcapacity and Russian intervention. While these concerns endure, the new initiatives and dialogues agreed to by American and Chinese economic leaders show hope for a future of sustained contact and better understanding.
Secretary Blinken’s Visit to China: Fruitful or Empty-Handed? The Chinese Perspective
By: Juan Zhang
“Blinken’s visit to China disappointed those who hoped for important outcomes in US-China talks, and those who hoped this visit would create new troubles,” wrote Hu Xijin, the former editor-in-chief for Global Times.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently wrapped up a visit to China. The visit was amplified by the fact that President Biden has not visited China since he took office in 2020, and this visit was perhaps Blinken’s last one to China before the election, which may set the tone for bilateral relations for the next few months. Hence, Blinken’s visit was closely observed by many seeking new insight into the future of U.S.-China relations. He was seen eating steamed buns (xiaolongbao) and visiting New York University’s Shanghai campus. Observers paid special attention to who greeted him at the airport upon arrival and who sent him home upon departure.
How do Chinese citizens view Blinken’s visit? Do they think the visit was fruitful or empty-handed?
Temperature Check: Overall, A Positive Outlook
“The pile of issues between China and the United States is towering, and the consensus is that none of those major issues have been resolved. But to be frank, this visit wasn’t designed to solve specific problems. China emphasizes that [the] two countries need to ‘fasten the first button,’ which is more important than solving specific issues,” wrote Hu when discussing Blinken’s recent visit to China.
Another well-known Chinese expert on U.S.-China relations, Wei Hongxia, the Chief Research Fellow at the Academy of Contemporary China and World Studies, expressed similar views. She pointed out that as the top U.S. Diplomat, the visit emphasized the importance of the two countries resolving differences through diplomacy.
Wei Zongyou, a Professor at the Center for American Studies at Fudan University, pointed out in an interview with Beijing Daily, “From the five-point consensus, we can see that both sides do not want US-China relations to head toward confrontation.”
One of the notable achievements of Blinken’s visit from the Chinese perspective was the five-point consensus agreed upon by China and the U.S. after a five-hour meeting between Blinken and China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi. It includes joint efforts to stabilize U.S.-China relations, maintain high-level diplomacy, hold government-to-government dialogues on artificial intelligence, expand people-to-people exchanges, and increase consultations on international and regional hotspot issues.
Hu Xijin agreed with two experts’ assessment that Blinken’s visit demonstrated the two countries both have desires to stabilize bilateral relations, saying it “increased people’s hope that bilateral relations will not deteriorate too quickly in the future and may stabilize temporarily.”
Challenges Ahead
Chinese experts have also noticed a series of negative measures the United States has taken toward China that preceded Blinken’s visit. In Wei Hongxia’s analysis, examples include the convening of a United States, Japan, and the Philippines trilateral summit in Washington; joint U.S. and Philippines military exercises; and Japan’s decision to participate in AUKUS. Additionally, President Biden’s new push to triple tariffs on Chinese steel has caused serious concerns in Beijing.
Wei Zongyou pointed out that Blinken’s visit was “primarily driven by economic demands.” He said, “Amid an election year, the Biden administration needs to demonstrate a tough stance towards China in economic and trade aspects to win over domestic blue-collar workers, especially those in swing states. Hence, the Biden administration recently rolled out actions like accusing China of ‘overcapacity,’ launching a Section 301 investigation, and threatening to impose tariffs.”
Blinken’s visit to China was also driven by diplomatic need, according to Wei. Washington expects China to play a constructive role in pressuring Moscow to end the war in Ukraine and in persuading Tehran and other regional powers not to escalate the war in the Middle East. With the intensification of the Russia-Ukraine War and Israel’s rejection of American pleas to de-intensify their invasion of Gaza, Wei Zongyou pointed out that the Biden administration cannot afford to see its rivalry with China veer into yet another confrontation. “If US-China relations fall into confrontation, it is safe to say that the Biden administration’s foreign policy performance is a fiasco. Therefore, stabilizing US-China relations through high-level communication and dialogue is also an important goal for the Biden administration.”
During the visit, Blinken mentioned China’s trade ties with Russia that may be supporting the war in Ukraine. Hu Xijin pushed hard to reject what he calls “smearing,” a baseless accusation about normal trade between China and Russia.
Many Chinese experts view Blinken’s visit as a key move from the Biden administration in dealing with U.S.-China relations before the November election. When predicting the direction of U.S.-China relations in the next few months, Chinese experts believe that the United States is unlikely to roll out major policy initiatives but will continue introducing smaller plans to push back against China.
“I believe that the United States’ cards are still mainly in the economic and trade aspects, and it will try to threaten China with new economic and trade restrictions. For example, it launched a new 301 investigation before Blinken’s visit to China,” said Lv Xiang, a Fellow at the Institute of American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Science.
“However, it is unlikely that they will take radical measures on the US-China relations front. The previous administration has already gone very far in terms of enacting tariffs. If it continues to increase tariffs, it is very likely that they will meet economic backlash, worsen inflation, and face pushback from voters. On the South China Sea issue and the Taiwan issue, the US’s provocation is already close to China’s red line. If it goes any further, it will cross the line, so they will be very cautious, ” Lv explained.
Chinese Netizens Scrutinize Blinken’s Visit
During his visit to China, Blinken, like Yellen, put up efforts to create a “friendly” atmosphere. During Yellen’s visit, she tasted various Chinese cuisines, interacted with university faculty and students, and attracted wide media and social media attention.
During his visit, Blinken followed Yellen’s lead and attempted to connect with the Chinese people. A video of Blinken eating steamed buns (xiaolongbao) in Shanghai went viral online.
In explaining why American politicians like to have a taste of Chinese cuisine during official visits, Da Wei, a Professor and Director of the Center for International Security and Strategy (CISS) at Tsinghua University, pointed out that, “If high-ranking US officials like Yellen and Blinken only discuss some issues during their visit to China and leave, it will give people a sense of very tense bilateral relations.”
Da Wei continued, “Therefore, these senior US officials hope to take advantage of these leisure visits to alleviate the tense atmosphere of official meetings and demonstrate their willingness to contact and understand China from multiple perspectives. At least, this is also a political signal they are conveying externally.”
One photo in particular demonstrates how Blinken’s visit was closely watched by internet users in China. The photo sparked intense discussions among netizens and experts from both China and the U.S. On April 26, U.S, Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns published a post on X thanking Blinken for his visit to China over the past three days, accompanied by a photo of the two diplomats shaking hands before Blinken’s departure from Beijing.
The internet quickly picked up on the fact that, in the photo, no Chinese officials were at the airport to bid farewell to Blinken, sparking fierce discussions about the seemingly deteriorating bilateral relationship.
The incident led reporter Yang Liu from Xinhua News Agency to respond on social media, “According to usual practice, Yang Tao, director of China’s Department of North American and Oceanian Affairs, was present to bid farewell to Blinken. When Blinken arrived in Beijing, Yang Tao was also present to greet him.”
Hu Xijin shared Yang Liu’s photo and wrote that Blinken was sent off by Yang Tao.
“Some claimed that no one from the Chinese side went to the airport to see off Blinken, which was purely fabricated to hype up the confrontation between China and the US,” Hu wrote.
